Shares (Stocks) Archives

2021 Report Card

2021 Report Card is ready. When it comes to trading, I don’t like to use the word disappointed. Disappointment portends expectation. And one should never have an expectation when it comes to the market. Take each day, week, month and year as it comes, yet remain focused on the long-term expectation of what the investment […]

The Weekend Trend Trader in Canada

Testing and trading different markets offer two distinct benefits: 1. strategy diversification2. robustness and stress checking In order to test new markets we require a complete data set, namely all delisted stocks, and if trading a specific universe, historical constituents. This specialist data is very hard to come by. Our long time friends over at Norgate […]

Diluting Signal Luck – Real Time Data

After the COVID crash in March 2020 I wrote a reflective article on lessons learned and what could we do better. The key takeaway for me was diluting signal luck. As mentioned at the end of that article, I implemented this new tactic as soon as the Trade Long Term Premium Portfolio switched back on, which it did on […]

Selecting The Right Broker

For many traders and investors, selecting a broker may not be given a great deal of thought. Retail traders tend to select a broker that is attached to their banking facility, or a well known brand name. However, there are quite a few considerations that should be taken into account. Instruments on Offer: Not only […]

Risk or Volatility?

Is it risk or volatility? There are many reasons why people fail at trading. The major causes are lack of trading strategy based on empirical evidence, or over trading with minimal capital. But it’s still possible for someone with a proven strategy and adequate capital to fall flat. And usually this occurs when confusing risk […]

Reliable and Consistent Indicators

“…what are the most reliable and consistent indicators that you have used over the last 30 years? I know you have a lot of models but just an overview would be cool.” – Nick H Before we get into this discussion there are two caveats: I’m not going to debate with the ‘price is all […]

Combining Turnkey Trading Systems

Combining turnkey trading systems was a topic we began to discuss in our last article, whilst answering a readers question. You can read that article first Combining Trading Strategies to Diversify Your Portfolio I made the point that as no re-balancing had been done, the portfolio becomes more and more lopsided to the best performing strategy […]

Combining Trading Strategies to Diversify Your Portfolio

Combining Trading Strategies to Diversify Your Portfolio has sparked a question from one of our subscribers. A recent question from Julie B… Have you run a test where you allocate equal amounts to [turnkey strategies]? If so, can you share the resulting data? Long time readers will be aware that I’m an avid proponent of […]

The Growth Portfolio – New Research

The Growth Portfolio is a longer term trend following strategy that has been a stalwart of mine since the late 90s. The strategy is loosely based on the Bollinger Band Breakout strategy (BBO) discussed in Unholy Grails, although the original design was based on Keith Fitschen’s Aberration trading system. Over time there have been a few tweaks, but […]

Managing Larger Portfolios

For the last 20-years I have run my main trend following portfolio with 20 equal positions, each with 5% capital. Most assume 20 is a nice round number, but in fact the efficient frontier for portfolio diversification is 18 positions. Rather than explain that to clients, and to make life easier, I simply rounded it […]