I’m not a stock picker. To give you an idea, over the last six or seven years my major trend following strategy here in Australia that trades long only equities, my win rate is about 49.6%. During that time, my compounded annualized return is about 18% compared to the market 2.7%. That’s only getting it right 50% of the time.
I don’t pick stocks, they pick me. Because they float to the top. I don’t have to pick the next best sector. I don’t have to time when the market is going to be good or when it’s going to be bad. I just have to be there when the time comes along. I think that’s a very good lesson, especially when you’re trading equities, especially on the long side. You can’t afford not to be involved during the good times.