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Don't Fight It!

dont fight itThe trend has been up in the U.S ever since the 2009 low.

During this period of time it was rare to hear anyone suggest shorting the market. Price action was smooth, impulsive and strong.

Why would you contemplate fighting it?

The question now; are we are entering a new bear market phase?

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Australia GFC 2.0?

all ordinaries accumulation indexThe Australian economy is continuing to show signs of vulnerability and evidence of a nasty credit crunch are emerging; growth is down, investment is down, wages growth is down and consumption growth is down.

Households are not spending. They're tapped out and under pressure as house prices fall. For the last 20-years the RBA has relied on household debt to meet their inflation targets, but with debt levels at record highs, house prices falling and the big banks are continuing to dampen lending, the RBA is at a crossroads.

The recent Q3 GDP data printed at 0.3% vs the expected 0.6% was a significant shock to economists sending many to suggest the RBA will need to lower interest rates - not tighten as many has expected. 

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The Long And Short Of It

forexWhen markets start to sell off, the common questions is "Should we be shorting?"

Fact is, bearish markets are different from bullish.

Shorting is definitely harder than it looks.

Downtrends are difficult to ride. They have swift counter trend moves which often knock out trailing stops.

The largest profit can be 100%, yet only if the stock goes to zero.

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The 10-Month Timing Model

signal chartIn late 2008, early 2009, I was approached by various financial planning firms and some stock brokers.

Their 'buy and hold / can't time the market' business model was crashing and burning alongside global stock markets.

It's a hard sell to tell a client to 'stay the course' when their portfolio of safe-as-houses property trusts with nice yields is 50% in the hole.

What they wanted was a strategy that was simple to implement, made market returns, without the large downside.

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The True Meaning of Wealth

the true meaning of wealthWhen asked about the meaning of WEALTH, most responses centre around money.

Sure, money gives us options.

Yet keeping a narrow view of money can lead to a poorer outlook in other aspects of your life.

A common theme with successful traders is they rarely focus on the money.

Not because they shun monetary wealth.

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Be The Best Loser You Can

money detachmentThere is an old saying, "The best loser is the long term winner".

I completely agree.

Professionals have the ability to cope with losses and deal with periods of equity decline.

Amateurs don't.

Because they believe professional traders rarely have losses.

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Trading Lessons To Keep You In The Game

trading strategyIs your preferred trading strategy systematic? Rules based? Discretionary?

Here's the thing...

There are never any guarantees.

Even though marketers and spruikers will tell you otherwise.

Here's the thing: throughout your trading career, you are going to be wrong, and often.

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70% Coiners

bitcoinWhen Bitcoin blasted through $12,000 late last year a Noosa local, who in a previous life promoted herself as a 'health activist', launched a new crypto business.

As you do.

She spruiked:

"...a simple trick that allows you to choose your investments by knowing which coins to buy (so you don't waste money on "bad apples")..."

"Buy, Sell And Trade Bitcoin And Altcoins Easily  (And get started with no money down).."

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Positioning For Trend Changes Using Elliott Wave

number patternsLet's discuss how Elliott Wave principals can be used to identify trends and high probability turning points, including Fibonacci relationships.

The basic pattern consists of impulsive waves followed by corrective waves.

The impulsive wave contains five smaller or sub waves in the direction of the prevailing trend.

The corrective wave has three sub waves and moves against the prevailing trend.

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