Long Term Trading

Australian Dollar Near 26-Month Highs On China Data
While some traders have limited their long positions in recent days, say dealing desks, new investment money continues to flow into the currency, …

Flash Crash Report: High-Frequency Firms Took Liquidity During Plunge
“That’s purely a phenomenon created by herd-like behavior by long-term investors.” Others pointed to the firms’ aggressive selling as proof that without …

Trading strategy for 3 buzzing stocks this week
As long as the sock is above 200, can be held for long term as well. The stock has P/E of 21, which is slightly on the higher side, but considering the fact …

Huge Week for the Dollar. Bank of Japan Likely to Take on the Fed
… but that cannot be relied upon historically in the long-term as a solution that global participants will be happy to accept. Therefore, traders will be …

The changing face of online trading
“The days when the typical online investor was a tech-savvy white male are long gone. Now there is no average investor. They cover all age, sex, …

Hedging When Stocks Move in Tandem
This idea is a departure from the more conventional view that investors should buy puts for the long term to offset stock-market declines. …

Cracking the jargon: Market speak need not be all greek
There are pension funds that invest for the long term. Short-term money comes into the market through hedge funds, and also through exchange-traded funds. …

Gold good for long-term investors
Although the prices of precious metals are trading near their all-time highs, analysts still believe there is scope for further appreciation from the …

US HOT STOCKS: M&T Bank, Diamond Foods Active In Late Trading
Equinix trimmed its third-quarter and full-year revenue targets, citing greater-than-expected discounting to secure longer-term contract renewals and …

Trading the Globe: emerging U.S. stocks
Others are rapidly realizing that they need to get into places like China and India if they want to stay relevant over the long term . . . or even just find …

Self Managed Super

SMSF borrowing needs further clarification
… Tax Liaison Group (NTLG) Super Sub-group has pinpointed the definition of a “single acquirable asset” in the new self-managed superannuation fund (SMSF) …

Property windfall plans
One alternative is to set up a self-managed super fund into which you and your husband could each contribute up to $450000 as NCCs and then invest purely in …

SMSF trustees still distrusting of advisers
By Mike Taylor on 5 October 2010 Self Managed Superannuation Funds (SMSF) trustees appear to be increasingly seeking the assistance of advisers, …

Accreditation standards crucial for SMSF sector
National accreditation standards for self-managed superannuation fund (SMSF) providers are necessary if the growing SMSF sector is to elevate itself from …

However you manage it, you can’t exceed the rule of four
In addition to the member/trustee requirement, a self-managed superannuation fund (SMSF) cannot have more than four members, no member can be an employee of …

ATO penalising SMSF trustee behaviour
… the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) has begun penalising start-up self-managed superannuation funds (SMSFs) for the behaviour of their trustees and …
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Short Term Trading

Aussie Dollar Traders Waiting for Bullish News from RBA
At this point on the chart and because of short-term overbought indicators, this market needs a catalyst to propel it through the last main top at .9849. …

Australia Shares End Up 1.0% In Thin Holiday Trading
Wesley Legrand, private client adviser at Grand Private Equities, said QE2 could well be factored in by the time it occurs but that, in the short-term, …

All-points alert as Aussie goes on the run
That, he says, gives us a target of $US1.02 in the short term. Another milestone is also being tested as the Aussie approaches its record high (since …

Short-Term Trend For Base Metals Remains Higher
“We suspect the short-term trend is higher still, although given the extent of the gains, we would suggest that the markets are rather overextended,” Meir …

Gold Short-term Looks Too Good
The long term rating at this time remains BULLISH. Looking at the short term chart (next section) we see an intermediate term up trending channel which …

Trading vs Investing
What I do is devote a chunk of it to my short-term trading. I want enough of it available there that no buying power issues arise, and so that I’ll have …

Swing Trading

SPX Closes Lower after Volatile Session
The algorithms used to determine our signals, whether day trading or swing trading, have one known weakness. The algorithms have a tendency to be “confused” …

Model ‘TradingTheOdds’ live on Covestor
… strategy until the middle of September), utilizing unleveraged and leveraged major market and sector ETFs for day trading and swing trading purposes. …

Technical Analysis

Crude Oil to Hit Resistance Level at $86.70 This Week
Photographer: Tim Rue/Bloomberg Crude oil may fail to breach the $86.70 a-barrel level this week based on statistical analysis used by traders to gauge …

Weekend Stock Market Analysis – Big Move To Start This Week, Watch These …
By ITMS News on October 3rd, 2010 1:00pm Eastern Time InTheMoneyStocks.com breaks out the key technical analysis techniques they have become famous for. …

S&P 500 to Approach `Tough Resistance’ at 1150 Level
… a “tough resistance” near the 1150 level and is unlikely to have a strong direction for several weeks, according to a technical analyst at Swedbank AB. …

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The Chartist Weekly Roundup

Short Term Traders

Crude Oil, Diesel Predicted to Rise Slightly
The US Energy Information Administration, part of the Department of Energy, said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook this week that although spot crude oil …

In the short term, crude prices will continue to remain weak
In the short term, we expect prices will be weak and the contango can further shorten. Do you see a situation where futures prices dip below spot prices (or …

Global indicators to drive markets in the short term
The negative news is expected to trigger a correction and would send markets towards the lower end of recent trading ranges. The positive market sentiments …

Monday Morning Outlook: Dow Jones Industrial Average Bulls March Warily Upward
In environments like this, short-term traders can better leverage directional moves in equity and index options, and there are a couple factors at play this …

Long Term Traders

A Year After Market Hit 12-year Low
This is a long term investment and how long will they wait until they start funding,is anyones guess. Perpetual growth is not possible with the confines of …

Citigroup shares lead market higher
To our long-term investors it was writing covered calls, however for our short-term traders we will do it naked. For today’s trade we are selling the April …

Bull Market Believers
3 that buying US shares “is a potentially good deal” for long-term investors. Six days later, the S&P 500 hit a 12-year low of 676.53 and then began its …

Bets on long-term gains increase
… according to the commission’s Commitments of Traders report Friday. “The best buying came again from managed money covering shorts and getting long,” …

As Stocks Hit a New High, Investors Shrug
Patient long-term investors, however, could benefit in the long run if Boeing can build on its aerial-tanker deal. Already, there are rumblings Boeing might …

Rally or Trend?
The long term trend line is created when the pattern of rally and retreat behaviour has an upward bias. This is shown in area 5 on chart 5. Traders and …

Schaeffer on Charts: Taking the Long View
As I’ve previously noted, this long-term moving average supported the market at the 2002-2003 bottom, and the 160-month break in October 2008 opened the …

Self Managed Super

SMSF investors still hoarding cash
INVESTORS with self-managed superannuation funds (SMSFs) say they will continue to hold a big proportion of their portfolios in cash despite improvements in …

Potential changes to super gearing
… way gearing in super operates, although there has been no official indication from the Government, according to a Multiport report on self-managed super .

An accident waiting to happen
The government has taken its first step towards reining in borrowing by self-managed super funds. This week the Superannuation Minister, Chris Bowen, …

Super funds get back on their feet
On the back of this, the industry has seen the rapid growth of the self-managed super funds (SMSFs) sector as a growing number of clients look to manage ..

Diversify on a road less travelled
You also need to be careful if you plan to buy an alternative asset through your self-managed super fund. The legal requirement is that the trustee’s sole …

Technical Analysis

S&P 500 May Extend Gain, Sentiment Shows
The Investors Intelligence analysis of investment newsletters for the week ended March 2 showed 42 percent of the writers were bullish, 1.85 times the …

Dollar Is ‘Critically Poised’ Against Yen
“Dollar-yen is critically poised,” Karen Jones, head of fixed-income, commodity and currency technical analysis in London, said in a telephone interview …

Stock Momentum Measure Signals More Gains
In technical analysis, strategists study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. …

Technical View of What’s Next for Precious Metals, Stocks & the Dollar
From looking at the charts using technical analysis we were able to catch the Feb. 5th low and also the Feb. 25th low on a several ETF’s. …

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The Chartist Weekly Roundup

Monday March 8th 2010

The upper boundary of the reversal zone we discussed on Friday night was almost tagged today. This is the area from which any reversal should technically take place, but as we said, confirmation back through 4717 is required to get anxious. Todays close was quite weak and there is a small gap just below the market which will more than likely get filled in the coming days. Added to this we have four RED warning bars. Normally when we get five in succession a reversal of some degree will more often than not occur. Most strength today occurred in the smaller end of the energy and mining sectors with some substantial jumps. We’ll be discussing the Material Sector in more depth tonight with a full review. A little caution required here.

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ASX into possible reversal zone…

Finally some strong upside movement that is directly related to the Type-A Bullish divergence. We’ve been on about this for a week now so its good that its offering up the strength. The larger question is whether or not we’re going to skip to new highs again and look back at this weakness as just a correction, or whether or not we’re having a brief bounce before heading lower again. I favour the latter scenario but will be willing to go with the bullish flow if proven incorrect. There have not been that many bullish divergence setups with individual stocks (unlike the US) but should the trend change to up again we’ll be seeking out breakout trades.

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Feb 17 2010

Some would say the market did well today, but taking a closer look it was a poor performance. Firstly early trade saw the index +52pts before closing at +22, so well off the intra day highs. This weakness was due to comments surrounding the Greece deficit issues and more Eurozone concerns. We’ll see how they play out in the coming days but that concern is still playing with traders nerves. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, Westpac results were well received driving it up +6% as well as dragging up NAB and ANZ. These three combined accounted for a rise of +31 index points, so remove them and we actually would have had a negative day. All in all we’re looking for the market to offer up a little more bounce over the coming week, but its struggling. Larger picture we retain the view that weakness will prevail into mid-year and expect the index to drop toward 4000.

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Feb 16 2010

The market was heavy today after China announced late on Friday that again it was curtailing commercial bank lending again in an attempt to slow the economy. That said activity was very quiet for a number of reasons; Chinese New Year and many Asian markets closed, a US holiday tonight and a plethora of ASX earnings due in the coming week. It seems most are willing to sit in their hands and take direction once all the news is digested. The market still has a heaviness to it yet we’re inclined to stay with the ‘sell the bounce’ theory at this stage. Bigger picture we remain in the broader range that has been in place since last September.

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Feb 15 2010

Yesterdays action was a little concerning as we wanted to see immediate follow through from Fridays reversal. We got the follow through today but it needs to stay the course for a week or two. I sort stocks into bearish and bullish folders based on a predefined scan I use. Interestingly enough many in the bearish folder closed very weak last night even with the background strength. The trends are all down so any counter trend trade is considered aggressive so don’t get too carried away with upside follow through. We continue to look at this coming bounce as a selling opportunity.

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Feb 9 2010

There remains a few setups still in the making. A few more days should see them enter our pages. Until then Type-A bullish divergence remains intact even though price dribbled lower. The US action last night was certainly not promising so we stay with the view that we expect a near term bounce followed by another leg lower. The safe trade remains shorting on that bounce.

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Feb 9 2010

We had no Discretionary positions going into todays weakness. I will say one thing – the market performed admirably today. So much so I will be taking a close look at the ASX-200 (XJO) again tonight in the Chart Research area and making some comments accordingly. The daily and weekly trends are down meaning we have no reason to be looking at long positions, but my comments tonight may change that outlook. I will be watching how the trend develops in the coming week and we’ll start looking for new trades. If you are looking for some long side positions, check out AMP, MSL and IOF which all exhibit some good looking bullish triangles.

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Jan 25 2010

Another garbage performance by the local market. It really struggled to hold its head above water and it certainly appears that seasonal strength is wilting. I now have 1 position left in the ASX Power Setups and two positions left in the US Power Setups that I will be closing tonight. Once the ASX position is closed I will be hanging the boots up for 2009 and readying the account for 2010 when we’ll go with real time performance again. We’ll be starting the year with a fresh $100,000 and follow the Systematic Power Setups without discretion. Account statements will be posted at the end of each week. I will mainatin my Growth Portfolio positions over the Christmas break.

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10 December 2009 – Winding down