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25 November 2009 – Thanksgiving
The gap between the Transports and Industrials closed a little last night. We have a significant line of resistance in the Transports, that of breached will be an extremely bullish development. I’d need to see that happen before getting too carried away with the expected Christmas rally. Also on a positive note the continuing decline [...]
Continue reading...24 November 2009 – Still watching divergence
25. November 2009
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The Dow Jones Transports continues its ‘non-confirmation’ of recent strength in the majors. This stays as our main concern. The Transports have reversed off a clear horizontal line of resistance three times. An upside breakout would be super bullish, but whilst price meanders below diverging from the big name indices we are not satisfied upside [...]
Continue reading...19 November 2009 – Pullback
20. November 2009
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The major indices dropped from the open, the Dow falling some -165pts before regaining some ground and closing off the sessions lows. The broader indices, including the Transports, fell about double. These broader indices, out to the Wiltshire 4000, are yet to make it into new highs territory, but they giving it ago. At this [...]
Continue reading...16 November 2009 – Transports closing the gap
17. November 2009
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The US Dollar continue to slip and the further it drops the more supportive for stocks. Another positive last night was the continued closing of the divergence gap between the Dow Jones Industrials and Transports. The DJIA added +1.33% to the Transports +2.03%. We really want to see the Transports to make new highs though [...]
Continue reading...13 November 2009 – Indecision
14. November 2009
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The market remains in a state of indecision. A little up drags some longs onboard. A little down sucks in some shorts. Either way there is no definitive trend. From a pure price perspective we’d say the trend is up. But other indicators are showing bearish divergences. One will be proven wrong in due course, [...]
Continue reading...12 November 2009 – Look out below
13. November 2009
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Several weak closes now and some divergences taking shape. This market is running out of puff here. I’m now quite concerned that a renewed leg lower is starting and basis the non-confirmation on the Dow Jones Transports and the lower low it may be a decent reversal of form.
Continue reading...November 10 2009 – A day of pause
11. November 2009
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After a few strong days we’ve had some quiet consolidation. The sessions range was low as was volume. Prices rotated back and forth without conviction. We stay with the view that the Dow Jones Transports index is still not confirming the bigger index strength. Also the broader indices, such as the Russell and Wiltshire, are [...]
Continue reading...November 9 2009 – Stimulus stays
10. November 2009
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The G20 decision to keep up stimulus put a rocket under prices today sending the major indices up over +2%. The air of confidence has again been bolstered after Buffett’s foray into the railroads purchase last week. Our trend indicators are slowly turning higher again and we can’t ignore the price action regardless of what [...]
Continue reading...6 November 2009 – Quiet end
7. November 2009
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The major indices closed a little higher but the highlight was the market survived the dreaded employment data. The big technical news was the Dow Jones Transports managed to close the divergence gap a little more. If that keeps going we can have greater confidence that recent weakness was just a dip and not the [...]
Continue reading...Novermber 5 2009 – Watching the Employment data
6. November 2009
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Some positive data lit the ignition sending the market steaming higher from the open. It did lose some momentum into the close but unlike previous sessions it managed to hold the gains this time around. Another positive was the very high ‘up’ volume reading which was 90%. Usually extreme internals like this add weight to [...]
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26. November 2009
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