October 6th, 2008 – Gathering Dust

Mon, Oct 6, 2008

ASX Commentary

It continues to amaze me how many people think they ‘need’ to trade. I mean, really, in this environment? The hardest trading environment I have seen or can remember with any clarity since I started in 1985. I think the 1988 – 1994 was bad, but I was young and stupid back then so clarity was not a strong point. There is no harm in standing back for a week, a month, 3-months or even longer. The name of the game is capital preservation. We’ve been banned from short selling and quite frankly what can you really expect from buying a stock at this stage? I’m sure someone ie making some peanuts from doing some buying, but I’m happy to leave it to them. I want swing trades lasting a few weeks and I’ll say that there aren’t many stocks offering any upside over a few days nevertheless a few weeks. Patience is a virtue. Save that capital. Opportunties will come – guaranteed.

Without the short selling facility we remain restrained and frustrated. CGF was a stock I mentioned as a sell opportunity just a few days ago. It tanked over 11% today and will drown some more tomorrow with Europe down some 5% as at writing. CBA was also mentioned and it closed -2.24% but is on the right path. SUN is my pick for a new short tomorrow and I think there is some decent downside in this one, possibly as far as $8.00. However, we’ll just watch from the sidelines.

The ASX has said they would like ‘covered’ short selling to be brought back online as soon as ASIC considers it worthy which is a good sign. That said, Europe is under fire and there is talk of a few economies defaulting, so no doubt hedge funds are to blame.

In the interim our AUD account continues to gather dust (aka interest). Buckle up.

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Nick Radge - who has written 899 posts on The Chartist.


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