Too many posts to handle? If you missed out on a great post from last month, here’s a quick digest of the top posts that you may want to check out:
- April 1, 2009 – No fools, back into it…
Posted on Wednesday, April 1st, 2009 in ASX Commentary – Comments: (0)We’ve had some time away from the blag as we build the new website. That will be online shortly. Trading remains slow with minimal progress suffice to say we’re keeping our heads above water and will therefore be able to make ourselves available for when things get a little easier. As hard as it may seem to go 5-months with minimal gains, that just the way it is sometimes. We’re about +2% in this period compared to +154% for the prior 9-months.¬† There are a few factors to consider as well. In the Jan 08 – Nov 08 period we made 156 trades. Since Nov we’ve mad just 26. So trade frequency is right down – not for want of trying though. Liquidity and short availability of stock have been considerations, but things are starting to turn. Our broader market analysis points to a rapid bear market rally as either started or about to start which will be a prime time to get involved.
- April 20 2009 – Extreme Caution Alert
Posted on Tuesday, April 21st, 2009 in ASX Commentary – Comments: (2)On Sunday afternoon we alerted all subscribers of impending weakness, weakness that was well supported by a series of technical signals and patterns. We’ve been under no illusions that the bear market bounce of the last 6-weeks had the ability to reverse and do so with vengeance. A final ‘washout’ could be underway. It was suggested that subscribers bank some profits or tighten stops on long positions in order to protect profits as this weakness takes hold. Our short term Model account has no open positions and we’ll stay sidelined until the intentions of the market show more clarity.
- April 22 2009 – Staying cautious
Posted on Thursday, April 23rd, 2009 in ASX Commentary – Comments: (2)We opened a long trade in COE which immediately decided the upside wasn’t the line of least resistance and closed weak. This is currently the only position in the short term Model Account and we’re cautious about market weakness accelerating in the coming weeks due to divergence on the leading indicators. Until this divergence unwinds we’ll keep a low profile. Our daily trend filters remain bullish and weeklies bearish so there is a lot of conflicting evidence for swing trading at present.The intermediate term Growth Portfolio is trying to hold recent gains – some very nice gains at that. This portfolio has an average hold period of 10-months but has been on hold over the last 18-months whilst the market declined. We turned it back on in late February expecting a reasonable upside swing. Participants have been rewarded but with the divergence discussed above we may see some of those open gains given back.
- April 23 2009 – Plenty of opportunitites
Posted on Friday, April 24th, 2009 in US Commentary – Comments: (1)Without doubt the US markets are offering up many bullish patterns that we like to trade. My contention is that a reliable indicator¬† we use is still suggesting the market is not ready to move higher just yet so I’m wary of making formal recommendations. That said we are running a number of positions from ‘informal’ suggestions such as BWLD which is doing quite well. Here is the curent chart:[/caption]When our indicator unwinds itself then we’ll reassert ourselves to the long side.
Click to enlarge
- April 7, 2009 – Reporting season wobbly
Posted on Wednesday, April 8th, 2009 in US Commentary – Comments: (1)We’ve been playing a cautious game over the last few weeks not really placing too much faith in this renewed strength or bullish market chatter. Whilst we’re taking a few long positions we’re also keeping the risk very low at just 0.5% per trade. It was highlighted to subscribers that perhaps the start of the reporting season would induce some of that expected weakness so its of no surprise that the we’re seeing this weakness coming through. The question is how it will impact on the larger price patterns. If price dips on low volume and in a meandering fashion then we firmly believe that renewed strength will emerge within this bear market bounce. However, if reporting season sends a vortex of fear back into price then we must expect new lows will be the expected outcome. In other words we watch this decline with interest because it will in turn dictate what the next move will be and how we position ourselves.
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