April 22 2009 – Staying cautious

Thu, Apr 23, 2009

ASX Commentary

We opened a long trade in COE which immediately decided the upside wasn’t the line of least resistance and closed weak. This is currently the only position in the short term Model Account and we’re cautious about market weakness accelerating in the coming weeks due to divergence on the leading indicators. Until this divergence unwinds we’ll keep a low profile. Our daily trend filters remain bullish and weeklies bearish so there is a lot of conflicting evidence for swing trading at present.

The intermediate term Growth Portfolio is trying to hold recent gains – some very nice gains at that. This portfolio has an average hold period of 10-months but has been on hold over the last 18-months whilst the market declined. We turned it back on in late February expecting a reasonable upside swing. Participants have been rewarded but with the divergence discussed above we may see some of those open gains given back. I advised subscribers that should they be concerned about the coming weakness that they take some profits or tighten stops.

We’re about to launch our new website in the coming weeks as well as expanding the current service.

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This post was written by:

Nick Radge - who has written 899 posts on The Chartist.


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