An alert was sent out this morning warning of ongoing divergences, in todays case that between the Dow Jones Industrials and the Dow Jones Transports. This one has served us well in the past so its worthy listening to it again. It by no means portends the depth of decline but when we saw the same in July the US markets dropped about 10%. Many brokers are quoting similarities to the 2003 bear market low and subsequent recovery. Back then the market rallied for two full years without any declines exceeding 5%. In fact there was one decline of 4% late in 2003 and then a 3% decline in early 2004. I’m not convinced that we can associate the recent bear market with the 2002 – 2003 version though. I sold some SPI futures this morning to hedge positions across my own portfolio’s but covered the hedge late in the day after the market rallied back from early weakness. The SPI has actually closed above the cash in late trade so its been a strong performance, at least locally. We’ll see what the US holds for us tonight though.
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Thu, Aug 27, 2009
ASX Commentary