Jan 27 2010
January 28, 2010 by admin · 2 Comments
| Weekly Trend: | __ | Down |
| Daily Trend: | Down | |
| Daily Momentum: | Down |
Price is currently in no-mans land. The downtrend is not firmly established yet and we feel the best action is to await a low volume bounce from which to find shorting opportunities. There are a few stocks worthy of brief bounces that could offer trades to the longside but these would be aggressive entries. Many of these kinds of entries align with Type-A bullish divergences. As usual we suggest trading with the major trend is the better option, however, if you’d like to see some of these counter trend trades please let me know via email.
Jan 27 2010
January 27, 2010 by admin · Leave a Comment
| Weekly Trend: | Down | |
| Daily Trend: | Down | |
| Daily Momentum: | ___ | Down |
Damage inflicted on the ASX came from two sources today; namely yesterdays weakness in the Chinese markets and today via the stronger than expected inflation data with rumour that the RBA will yet again raise rates. The currency firmed on back of this speculation but I’m wondering if the RBA has a little bit of heart and takes into account the current nervousness and wobbles in global stock markets. It would be a shame if they go a little too gung-ho and really place stress back on the economy. I sent out an alert late today on the three specific patterns we should be looking at in the coming weeks. The immediate environment is tricky as the downward trend has not yet been fully established so be a little cautious about be aggressive on the short side at the moment.
Jan 26 2010
January 27, 2010 by admin · Leave a Comment
| Weekly Trend: | __ | Down |
| Daily Trend: | Down | |
| Daily Momentum: | Down |
The market tried to trade higher but was dragged down into the close. Very weak price action and further confirmation that the trend has turned south. We will only be looking at short positions until this trend position changes again. We will be focusing on certain patterns that will start to appear in the coming week, namely Head & Shoulders top and A-B-C corrections that make ‘lower swing high’ patterns. Obviously we’ll also be watching out for breaks through major lines of support.
Jan 25 2010
January 25, 2010 by admin · Leave a Comment
| Weekly Trend: | Down | |
| Daily Trend: | Down | |
| Daily Momentum: | ___ | Down |
We had no Discretionary positions going into todays weakness. I will say one thing – the market performed admirably today. So much so I will be taking a close look at the ASX-200 (XJO) again tonight in the Chart Research area and making some comments accordingly. The daily and weekly trends are down meaning we have no reason to be looking at long positions, but my comments tonight may change that outlook. I will be watching how the trend develops in the coming week and we’ll start looking for new trades. If you are looking for some long side positions, check out AMP, MSL and IOF which all exhibit some good looking bullish triangles.
Jan 22 2010
January 23, 2010 by admin · Leave a Comment
| Weekly Trend: | __ | Up |
| Daily Trend: | Down | |
| Daily Momentum: | Down |
Downside follow through on heavy volume suggests that we’ve got a lot further to travel. With the daily trend now down we should only be looking at short positions over the coming weeks. We’ll be scouring the charts for opportunities in the next few days and bringing them to you. There is no reason to be trading longside from here.
Jan 22 2010
January 22, 2010 by admin · Leave a Comment
| Weekly Trend: | Up | |
| Daily Trend: | Down | |
| Daily Momentum: | ___ | Down |
The daily trend turned down today and the weekly very nearly did as well. Another down day through todays lows will turn that negative as well. As a result our trailing stops will be aggressively moved higher and new signals will be halted. If the market trends lower we will stay in cash with the Systematic PowerSetups but will now start sourcing short trades for the Discretionary portfolio. The all important 4700 level was not breached, but the depth of this current decline has done enough damage to the immediate technical picture that our larger target of 5200 is now considered a secondary probability. If we are to go through the 4700 level it may be the start of a larger decline toward 4000. A full discussion on the situation can be found within the ASX Chart Research area.
Jan 21 2010
January 21, 2010 by admin · Leave a Comment
| Weekly Trend: | Up | |
| Daily Trend: | Up | |
| Daily Momentum: | ___ | Down |
The daily and weekly trends as determined by our trend filters remain up. The Elliott Wave count remains up. We continue to make higher highs and higher lows, traditionally suggesting the trend is up. We have a bullish flag sitting on support which, more often than not, tends to break up. Of course I could be wrong and we’ve seen a high – but lets await the markets decision on that. 4700 is the level to watch. The Power Setups will cease offering bullish signals if we drop below 4790 and the Growth Portfolio will do the same at 4765.
Jan 20 2010
January 21, 2010 by admin · Leave a Comment
| Weekly Trend: | __ | Up |
| Daily Trend: | Up | |
| Daily Momentum: | Flat |
The news out of China coupled with earnings season saw the market give back all of yesterdays gains and some. At one stage the market was -200 but clawed back a little into the close. We’ll be taking a closer look at some of the indices tonight within our normal reviews, but suffice to say support levels remain in place as do shorter and longer term trends. I get the feeling that 2010 is going to follow the patterns of late 2009 – that is chopping higher without much conviction. This makes shorter term swing trading particularly difficult and frustrating. If this is to be the case we’d be better off adopting profit targets rather than using trailing stops and being quick to move in and out of stocks.
Jan 20 2010
January 20, 2010 by admin · Leave a Comment
| Weekly Trend: | Up | |
| Daily Trend: | Up | |
| Daily Momentum: | ___ | Down |
Chinese banking authorities have instructed some major banks to halt their lending during the rest of January because of imminent inflationary pressures. This comes not long after the Central bank quietly raised interest rates but todays action took the bullish steam out of the local market. US futures are trading only slightly lower (approx. 25 Dow points) so it doesn’t seem to be a nasty reaction across the board yet. What will be interesting is todays volumes comparative to closes. Weak closes on high volumes will be a concern, especially if we see follow through in the US tonight.
Jan 19 2010
January 19, 2010 by admin · Leave a Comment
| Weekly Trend: | Up | |
| Daily Trend: | Up | |
| Daily Momentum: | ___ | Down |
Broker excuse #23 “Profit Taking” explains todays weakness. Maybe. There was no lead from the US last night due to a public holiday but US earnings have started flowing through and many are concerned about the banking sector. We’re staying with current positions and managing them accordingly. We’ll continue down this path until the trend changes. Momentum has been waning for the last week or two with our momentum indicator starting to roll lower now. It had been flat but the weakness over the last two sessions has reversed its course. There is good technical support down to 4800.