Christmas Break

We’ll be taking some time off to recharge the batteries. We’ll return on January 4th to see what the market has in store for us in 2010.

10 December 2009 – Winding down

Another garbage performance by the local market. It really struggled to hold its head above water and it certainly appears that seasonal strength is wilting. I now have 1 position left in the ASX Power Setups and two positions left in the US Power Setups that I will be closing tonight. Once the ASX position is closed I will be hanging the boots up for 2009 and readying the account for 2010 when we’ll go with real time performance again. We’ll be starting the year with a fresh $100,000 and follow the Systematic Power Setups without discretion. Account statements will be posted at the end of each week. I will mainatin my Growth Portfolio positions over the Christmas break.

9 December 2009 – Santa rally needs to start right now

The key level we’re watching at present is 4587. A break down through that suggests a deeper correction toward 4400 is underway. However, if price can hold above 4587 we have a significant bullish triangle to contend with that may provide the springboard into the New Year. We’ll take a closer look at this in more depth tonight in the XJO review. But for now we’re seeing red across the board so its a game of trade management until the trend can resolve itself in a more favourable way.

** Note ** As of January 1st 2010 the current track record for the ASX Systematic Power Setups will be replaced by a real time trading account. This will ensure a much more accurate representation of results and slippage.

8 December 2009 – Weak, but quiet

The market dropped 100-pts right on the opening bell and then stayed in a sideways band. It certainly appears that the sideways ranging is going to continue, albeit we still retain a positive interest in the broader indices strength. The Transports have broken up and out of the resistance and whilst they were weak last night they certainly were only slightly down. Its coming into quiet Christmas trade and with this sideways movement dragging on I think its time to hang up the boots for the year and await some new direction in 2010. Personally I’ll be managing my current open trades but not adding any new positions.

8 December 2009 – Symmetrical triangle still forming

It’s all red here. The daily trend. The weekly trend. And daily momentum. The only saving grace is that price is stuck in a coiling symmetrical pattern that could lead to a upside breakout toward 5200. A break down through 4600 will be a very negative signal but if we can hold up above that then we still have a chance to kick higher. That said all our systems are going flat or tightening up stops in defensive mode. As I will be taking leave next week we’ll not be adding any new positions to our own accounts and will spend the Christmas break square on short term trades.

** Note ** As of January 1st 2010 the current track record for the ASX Systematic Power Setups will be replaced by a real time trading account. This will ensure a much more accurate representation of results and slippage.

7 December 2009 – A soggy day, but…

We called for some volatility after the US data release and we certainly got it. A very weak day for the ASX with resources taking the lead lower. There is a lot of speculation about the US$ direction now. The ASX is coiling in a nice symmetrical triangle pattern and by all account an upside breakout will be very bullish, so long as 4587 is not breached to the downside in the interim. Broader US indices actually had a great day on Friday, including the Transports that finally broke through significant resistance. As much as today hurts the account we still see potential of a solid rally into Christmas. An upside breakout from this triangle will lead to a measured target of 5175.

** Note ** As of January 1st 2010 the current track record for the ASX Systematic Power Setups will be replaced by a real time trading account. This will ensure a much more accurate representation of results and slippage.

4 December 2009 – Higher into Xmas?

It was suggested that last nights session would be a market mover – and we weren’t disappointed. Unemployment dropped sending the market dramatically higher but a bid also came into the US Dollar sending stocks lower again and pummeling Gold. Stocks dropped several hundred points from the intra day high before recovering to finish slightly in the green. Gold closed down almost $60. The good news is that the Dow Jones Transports closed nicely through the major line of resistance. I take this as a bullish statement which was also supported by some of the smaller cap indices closing nicely higher as well. I’m now wondering that with the employment data out of the way whether or not the US can rally into New Year?

4 December 2009 – Slapped down

Another Friday – another bad day. What is it with Fridays? If you’re wondering why its so hard at present, take a moment to consider that the market is net +7pts since September 17 – that’s 78 calendar days or 55 market days of basically trading sideways. No wonder false breakouts are rife. Is there any good news? The one highlight I will make, and I did note it the other night in the ASX-200 review, is that the indices are coiling in a large symmetrical triangle. This weakness today is the start of what should be the final leg of that triangle. So long as the lower boundary line at 4600 is not breached, then we are seeing what could be a decent springboard into Christmas and the New Year. Todays weakness turned the daily trend down, so defensive action will be taken. Also consider that tonight is US employment data which should (will) also be a market mover.

3 December 2009 – Consolidating

A quiet day whilst the market awaits Friday employment data out of the US. I have added a few more long trades but caution is still required until the Dow Transports break up and through resistance. There are also a few short trades around for those interested, but as they’re against the trend I won’t post them here. BBG, GBG and TAP all exhibit bearish flags. The market continues to mark time. My focus remains in the resource sector.

2 December 2009 – Employment data looming

A quiet range bound session that on the surface doesn’t mean a great deal. However, the key Transports index rose again to be very close to the important line of resistance. The fact that the index rose without support of the Dow Industrials could well be signaling that a break higher is nearby. US employment data is being released on Friday. This will be a market moving event, but technicals are pointing to strength should the Transports manage to break out.

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