February 25, 2009 – Indecision

The US is trying to decide whether it really does want to go lower but we’re simply managing our open trades as best we can and allow the market to do as it wishes. Today saw Boral closed at at breakeven. As I have stated to subscribers, I am happy to take breakeven trades. It means we’ve been presented a ‘no risk’ opportunity and have done our job as managers of bad trades.

Considering the strength posted in the US o/night out short positions fared well, but mainly due to the 6% decline in FXJ. All in all the account lost $71 today – a lot less than what I was expecting. Have no expectations and you’ll never be disappointed…

February 23 2009 – Back in shape

Since our last update we’ve been calling the US indices to start declining below Novembers lows, hopefully with some force. So far so good with last night seeing new 12-year lows. We are short 6 stocks in the US which is about all I’m willing to go with at this stage. Our account has started turning the corner again afetr spending a few days in the red.

At this stage we’ll just be managing these open trades and not initiating any new ones.

Account status with current positions:

Monday February 23, 2009 – Going, going…

Our last update on Thursday highlighted short positions in BLD, FXJ and LEI. We had been short in MIG but was stopped out for a breakeven trade, however we jumped in again on Friday. Today saw continued weakness with all positions working in our favour, although BLD dropped going ex-div. The outlook portends one last thrust lower, hopefully an aggressive move, before prices are expected to take a large tunr higher last many months. We are carefully holding measured shorts at this stage but will be quick to align ourselves to the long side when this major advance comes along. It could be a month away yet, but it is looming.

MIG trade from Friday:

Account balance:

February 19, 2009 – Staying short

We were able to book profits in the short PBG trade yesterday at $0.31 but also added new shorts in LEI and BLD. Currently we hold short positions in LEI, FXJ and BLD. We had been short MIG but stopped out today for a scratch trade. We’re always happy to take scratch trades because it means we’d been running a ‘free’ trade beforehand.

Here is the completed PBG trade:

Trades executed today:

And the account status:

With the market still range bound we’re not making much in the way of solid gains, but the time will come again. Ideally we should retain a small interest yet be prepared when the new trends come along. The longer the markets consolidate the larger the coming move will be – we just need to be sure we’re on it.

February 17, 2009 – Starting to slip

Our bias is that the markets may be close to tackling the November lows perhaps with a sharp selloff. as such we’ve been slowly getting short positions on, which today was the right way to be placed. MIG (-3.2%), FXJ (-3.6) and PBG (-5.6%) all traveled nicely. The Model Account does not have the short PBG trade but it was a formal recommendation.

No new trades today, although another short recommendation came close to being activated.

The account recouped some lost ground today but we really want this market to make downside statement over the coming week to clear the cob webs and bank some profits.

February 16, 2009 – Adding shorts

We added a new short in MIG today taking the total short positions in this model account to 2, the other being FXJ. Subscribers are also short PBG but I was unable to facilitate that trade for personal reasons. The US markets offered some good news on Thursday after a strong closing statement, although this waned on Friday putting those indices into negative territory for the week. Tonight is a public holiday in the US so we’ll see our markets wander a little ahead of their re-open. They look vunerable so I retain my short side bias across the board, although Gold is looking attractive on longer term models.

Trades executed today:

Account status as at Monday’s close:

12 February, 2009 – Slipping into the red

Since our last blog post the markets have remained in a sideways range creating difficult trading conditions. We have attempted to align ourselves with the probable decline that is expected to break this range, but it’s proving resilient to say the least. Our aim here is to continue to keep risk low, or even stand aside, and wait for that break because that’s when these small losses will be regained, as was the case in November.

Our positions are mainly short:

Account status:

9 February, 2009 – False breaks defended

We covered two shorts today, AAX and GCL after they initially stalled on the pattern breakout. If a stock wants to breakout, it needs to do it immediately. We do not want to be hanging around in this volatile environment hoping for a positive outcome. It either does, or it doesn’t. If it doesn’t we’re not interested. We now only have a solitary short trade with STO although a few other patterns and signals have developed.

On the intermediate term strategies the Growth Portfolio has also offered a BUY signal for the first time since it’s reactivation. Because of the longer term nature of those trades (average hold time of 10-months) we’ll not be posting the specific positions here but they will be available for subscribers as usual.

Trades executed today:

Our CFD account as at todays close:

Nothing to write home about but we’re ahead of the game in what could be deemed a very difficult period of time. I’ve stated numerous times before that patience and tenacity are required traits for trading success. The good and bad trades and market conditions need to be taken together. I’m confident that some better times will come along.

February 6, 2009 – TGIF

Thankfully someone finally rang the bell. Its been an unpleasant day, ending an unpleasant week which continues on from a difficult month. We’re doing our best to repeat our US performance of giving back all open profits made before Xmas. The chop of the markets within this larger degree wave-(4) is unrelenting. It’s said that one should never trade during a wave-(4) – now we know why. However, as uncomfortable as it may be, we’re keeping risk low, keeping a longer term outlook and understanding that the good must be taken with this type of bad.

LGL was never looking comfortable from the get go and today we finally put that one to rest by being stopped out. As strange as this may sound I’m relieved not being short Gold, especially after last night. Last night was a strong signal. The price of Gold actually rose even though the US Indices rose which I think says something. To date Gold has been strengthening only on stock weakness. The next bull might be right here and now.

Trades today:

Account staements as at COB:

I need a beer…

February 5th, 2009 – Another short added

We now have a total of 5 short positions on with the addition of CTX today. The only signs of long trades remain in the resource sector so we’ll watch those with interest in the coming days.

Trades today:

The account declined by $37 with LGL and CTX dragging us down and STO making a positive contribution. I have informed subscribers that I’m working to get the LGL stop to breakeven. I really don’t want to be short Gold, especially if the US rolls over with some force. Our $50,000 start balance now stands at $52,365.

On another note I have turned on our intermediate term trend following system again with some new management tweaks. This Growth portfolio was a favourite during the bull phase but has been in hibernation for many months now. We’ve added another model account of $100,000 to start reporting results. Because of the longer term nature of these positions we will not be able to record open trades in this public forum.

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