January 27, 2009 – Easy come, easy go…

After Fridays gains we managed to give it all back again today. Commodities rallied back hard driving STO and BHP strongly higher. We retain the positions but too much more of this and we’ll be getting stopped out at b/even. No new trades today but we do have a long trade ready for tomorrow. If this commodities ‘pop’ continues we may see a few more long side trades.

January 22 & 23 2009, Quiet and happy to be so…

The last month has been a trying time in US markets with no real direction being given and choppy activity. This model account had an error trade on in CAG which was removed at breakeven today, but this was not a formal recommendation so no impact on the account status. We retain a single short position in CTL but I’m happy to stand aside for a week or so and allow some better qualified patterns to appear and hopefully some better trendiness as well.

January 23 2009, New open equity highs…

Thanks to plunging prices in BHP and STO we’ve managed to see the account jump well through the $54,000 for the first time. That said we have 2 full US trading sessions whereby anything can happen, and usually will. So, we don’t pin our hopes on one days price action because it can reverse just as much the next. We stay short BHP, STO and AWE. A new short trade has been recommended for clients come Tuesday should the markets continue lower.

Have a great long weekend.

January 22, 2009 – Gains pared…

AWE pushed higher, as did BHP, both of which contributed to some giving back of open profits. STO dropped helping us out a little. No new positions were opened but the AWE stop is close by. The broader market is still in the midst of a wave-(4) bounce from our perspective but it needs to confirm it very quickly. If so we could see some decent strength over the coming weeks, but we’ll be relying on the US to get us underway. Until this period of choppiness is resolved we’re more than likely going to sit back and watch.

Here’s the latest account statement:

January 20, 2009 – No rally for Obama

Our last long position, official long position that is, HPT, was stopped last night. We have an unofficial position in the account from a failure to cancel a trade. That is now costing us money, but mistakes do happen in the real world. We are left with one short position which is a dissappointing result considering the quality short side setups. We’re going to sit quietly until the reporting season calms down before, although no appropriate setups for our specific patterns are available anyway.

Trades done last night:

The account  has all but given back its 3-months works of gains. Such is the journey of trading at times.

January 20, 2009 – Energy & Resources helping out

It’s been a busy few days in out household so this is a late post taking into account the last few days. We exited our last long position in BSL for a small 1R profit. We now have no longs yet retain our 3 shorts; BHP, STO and AWE. All these 3 are in the money, although STO came within a whisker yesterday of tagging the breakeven stop.

BSL fill from yesterday and the chart of the trade:

As at close of business today, Tuesday 20th, the Model Account shows a balance $53,650, inclusive of unrealized P&L. No trades were executed today. Tomorrow is the BHP quarterly release which may move the account.

January 16, 2009 – Drawdown continues…

Our analysis of the broader indices has been spot on, but doubts crept in regarding the ability of that analysis to hold up. As such we started reversing longs and replacing them with shorts, which is now biting us back. One of those ’stop and reverse’ trades was BIIB that has now stopped us out of the short creating some whipsaw. That one looks nicely bullish now. MR also stopped out.

Subscribers reading this page may wonder about the CAG trade showing below. It was a formal recommendation made several days ago and subsequently canceled – well, should have been canceled. I failed to do so and duly forgot it. Now we have a position that in theory we shouldn’t have, but such is trading. Whilst I try an keep this model account aligned 100% to the formal trades, sometimes we do have errors. Nonetheless, we’ll manage this trade accordingly.

Trades executed on Friday:

The account remains in its drawdown, now at the 10% mark from open equity highs.

January 15, 2009 – Treading water

It’s one of those frustrating times in the market where a sustained trend is hard to come by and swing trading becomes difficult. It seems whatever we make in the ASX we give back the following evening in the US. We started switching from long to short a few sessions ago, added some more shorts last night, only to see the US reverse off major lows and rally hard into the close.

We reversed our BIIB position from long to short last night and also added MR as a new short. Both positions look precarious. Last nights executions

And the account slipped yet again:

January 14, 2009 – Got to turn the boat…

We’ve been on the wrong side of the US market over the recent weeks and it’s cost us some nice open profits. We added two new shorts a few nights a go and intend to add some more tonight, albeit we still retain two long trades. Our feeling that a bounce would offer better upside has failed to materialize and here we are with the weekly trend reasserting itself. It just goes to show that some patience and trading with the larger trend will usually be more beneficial than attempting to catch every swing and roundabout.

Account status with current open positions:

January 15, 2009 – Is the bear back…

Despite the 4.25% decline in the market today our trades and account went along swimmingly. The account increased $800 in value, or 1.5%, to close at $53,923 which I think is a new open equity high. We exited DJS on the open for a moderate profit and NAB a little after for more or less a breakeven trade. We retain a long interest in BSL, but kindly short BHP (-6.5%), AWE (-3.9%) and STO (-2.0%) which made up the days gains.

Trades done today

Here is the completed DJS trade:

There is a risk that the bounce we were looking for may not eventuate and that prices are ready for their next leg down into new lows. Whilst this has been the mandate, we were hoping for a little more upside traction beforehand. Maybe not to be.

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