December 16, 2008 – Getting longer

We opened a new long position in BSL today, yet another offering a high risk/reward if successful. We now retain longs in NAB, ASX, IRE, BSL and DJS.

The account continue to probe at new equity highs without the ability to break through. As usual we expect it will occur eventually so long as we stay with guiding rules of creating a positive expectancy.

We’ll be taking annual leave over the Xmas break starting tomorrow. Subscribers will be shown how to manage these open trades which will hopefully go onto reach their respective target. We’ll be keeping these trades open in this model account udring our absense, so it may be that we achieve a different result to subscribers.

We’re looking forward to the challenges of 2009 knowing full well that we can pull profits from the market regardless of its direction.

December 15, 2008 – Some Santa gains…

A good day late into the year with 3 of the 4 long positions providing solid gains (ASX +4.9%, IRE +8.2%, DJS +7.8%) The NAB position remains the underperformer. A new long position has setup for today should the market decide to push higher.

No trades executed today.

Including open profits the account is now +3.8% since November 24th.

December 12, 2008 – Caught in the chop

Subscribers are well aware that I have called an interim low in the markets and am looking for a reversal of recent falls to unfold over the coming months. This shift of momentum, from short to long, is causing us a little grief on the US side of the ledge as we stay with shorts. One would argue that we should be looking at longs, but there are none to be had at this stage and secondly I may well be wrong with my market assessment.

Some new shorts were added on Friday, but we got caught in the opening gap down only to see prices reverse sharply through the session. OMG showed us another outside day – never fun, but it happens.

Trades executed on Friday:

The account has given back some profits over the last few weeks. Needless to say we have a full 12-months of trading ahead which should offer some sustained trends to help our cause.

December 11, 2008 – Treading water into Xmas

Times like these can be frustrating, that is when the account just drifts – up a little, down a little. To be sure the market is not exactly bounding one way or other is makes sense that the account also consolidates. We take a long term view with our trading, even though our positions are short term. We understand that expectancy is created over the longer term and that short term abberations will occur, just like in other pursuit. Patience and tenacity is the name of the game.

No new trades of late. Account balance:

December 10 & 11, 2008

We added a short position in MYL on Wednesday evening and another in CIB last night. Unfortunately we also got whipped with an outside bar in PNK which is always a risk when searching for low risk entries. These do occur from time to time but are rare and should be considered a normal part of trading.

We have a few more short setups awaiting tonight.

Trades executed on Wednesday and Thursday:

Our account remains with over A$5,000 in profits since October 1st – not a bad return on $231 worth of subscription for the period. We reiterate that we’re only using 0.5% risk, well below the standard 2% used by others.

Our account balance as at close of business Thursday:

December 10, 2008 – Staying long…

We’re holding 4 long positions, (ASX +1.25%, DJS +4.15%, IRE +3.23% and NAB -1.51%) of which 3 moved in the right direction today. All these trade have high reward payoffs so target prices are still a little way off. It’s disappointing to see BHP +6.71 today, following on from yesterdays gains, without us. Our stop just got tagged unfortunately. Subscribers will be aware of a much larger pattern forming here so we’ll be watching that one for another opportunity.

No trades executed today. The account is now +3.5% since resuming trading in late November.

December 9, 2008 – Chop continues

Sometimes you get lucky. Other times it just runs the wrong way. We were short STO, only to be squeezed out on takeover rumour, then watch as it nosedives again as the rumour subsides. We buy NAB only to get caught up with the WBC capital raising t. Traders sold bank stocks to take advantage of the WBC fire sale. Times like these can be frustrating but we need to push through. That said coming into Christmas one certainly thinks of laying low for a few weeks, however, we still have positions to manage, unfortunately none on the short side.

Today we were stopped out of the short NCM trade.

And the account just can’t make it into new equity highs.

December 9, 2008 – Squeezed and square

Our last remaining positions were closed out at either breakeven or loss leaving the account square. The markets seem to be wallowing back and forth without any committed direction which in turn is frustrating albeit a normal part of the trading process. We’ll be taking it easy with Christmas just around the corner and look to the New Year to get fully geared up again.

8 December, 2008 – So much for balance

After seeing Crude plumb new lows on Friday in the US I assumed we’d be in good condition with a short STO position. That was proven wrong when rumors of a takeover surfaced sending the stock skyrocketing and taking out our breakeven stop. So with the Dow up very strongly we should have had a decent day today being bias to the long side, but ended up slightly down for the day. Stuff happens.

Trade executed today:

The account is now +3.2% in the few weeks we’ve been back into the ASX but hopefully the market can continue finding some strength and our long positions can regain some lost ground.

December 5, 2008 – Giving a little back

We opened two new shorts on Friday only to see the market reverse sharply higher. The employment data was horrific, including significant revisions from the prior month. Why the market rallied 5% is beyond us, but we’re not here to question the market. One lesson is that if the market doesn’t do what it obviously should, in this case go lower, then you’d better watch out because it will flip the other way with vengeance. As such we’ve taken some defensive action where possible but we’re caught short here so expect some slight profit give back into year end.

Trades executed on Friday:

The account remains 12% ahead after 9-weeks based on 0.5% risk per trade.

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