ASX Commentary
Feb 9 2010
| Weekly Trend: | Down | |
| Daily Trend: | Down | |
| Daily Momentum: | ___ | Down |
There remains a few setups still in the making. A few more days should see them enter our pages. Until then Type-A bullish divergence remains intact even though price dribbled lower. The US action last night was certainly not promising so we stay with the view that we expect a near term bounce followed by another leg lower. The safe trade remains shorting on that bounce.
Feb 8 2010
| Weekly Trend: | Down | |
| Daily Trend: | Down | |
| Daily Momentum: | ___ | Down |
Several things of interest tonight. Firstly there are some partial setups forming such as AWC, KZL and WPL. These need a few more days before they suit my criteria but they may suit yours now. There is good Type-A bullish divergence across a number of markets, both ASX and US indices as well as commodities like Gold. We look at this as a reason for a near term bounce but this is not expected to change the trend. Had today closed a little firmer, rather than weakly, then I would be suggesting some reversal type trades for the bounce. If we get a better close tomorrow then we may issue some brief buy setups.
Feb 5 2010
| Weekly Trend: | Down | |
| Daily Trend: | Down | |
| Daily Momentum: | ___ | Down |
Global markets were thumped last night on back of ECB concerns. Metals and commodities were also punished with many key technical levels being broken. Volume was huge. Many commentators are suggesting that we’ve started ‘the big one down’ – that is a wave-3 impulse that will see those March lows come into play. Not my line of thinking. The TV talking heads suggest this is the sell-off we had to have and brokers are suggesting it was always coming. I guess it always is…but why do they tell us after the fact? There are some interesting information on the charts so we’ll be taking a close look at the ASX indices tonight in the chart research area. We’re holding shorts at present, one or two of which were a little resilient to the weakness. Tonight is the big one in the US with Employment data. Was last night pricing some bad news in perhaps?
Feb 4 2010
| Weekly Trend: | Down | |
| Daily Trend: | Down | |
| Daily Momentum: | ___ | Down |
Well, that small gap we discussed yesterday was filled today as expected. There is not a great deal more to say. The trends are all down. The 2-day rally has been stifled, at least for the moment. major support stands at 4500 and we’re awaiting important economic data out of the US tomorrow evening which will more than likely set the tone for the next move.
US Commentary
Feb 5 2010
| Weekly Trend: | __ | Down |
| Daily Trend: | Down | |
| Daily Momentum: | Down |
There is a lot of action within the setups today mainly due to the need to vigorously defend shorts after last nights strong reversal into the close and the creation of lots of Type-A Bullish Divergences. The market rallied close to 170-pts in the final hour on news that the ECB may have found a solution to their debt issues. We will also add a number of new bullish trades, some reversal and some continuation, with a view to profiting from an expected bounce in the coming week. Again I reiterate that is these times we’ll not be using a trail stop, but honouring profit targets as listed.
Feb 4 2010
| Weekly Trend: | __ | Down |
| Daily Trend: | Down | |
| Daily Momentum: | Down |
The market fell in a significant hole last night and several commentators are saying this is the ‘big one’ down. Maybe. We’re short and happy to be that way. I have updated current positions and added a few extra’s in for good measure. I’ll scan charts again this afternoon and may post some further setups later in the day. Ensure you check back later this evening if you’re looking for some extra trades.
Feb 3 2010
| Weekly Trend: | __ | Flat |
| Daily Trend: | Down | |
| Daily Momentum: | Down |
The market has lost its momentum completely. We’re in no-mans land. Earnings are still being released and tomorrow has the all-important Employment data release which will be heavily watched and voted on by the market. The market could swing strongly one way or other. If it swing up be watchful of a short squeeze and any signs of exhaustion. The daily trend is down but its not firmly entrenched. I would not be getting overly committed until after the employment data and some indication of the trend.
Feb 2 2010
| Weekly Trend: | __ | Flat |
| Daily Trend: | Down | |
| Daily Momentum: | Down |
The most important thing to understand here is that the market is currently in no-man’s land. Another strong session but this is too be expected with bulls thinking a new rise is underway. It may well be, but the short term trend in our view remains down so we take this strength with skepticism. The long term trend is mixed. If volume wanes in the coming week or we make a very clear 3-wave counter trend move we will be looking more aggressively at short trades for another leg lower. As mentioned several days ago, by all metrics the market is well oversold so a bounce here is simply unwinding that situation.