Investment Talk with John Hallows
Sunday Telegraph, 27th November 2005

Over the years I’ve has a lot of fun being rude about technical analysis – to give what’s usually called “charting” its proper name.

What always sparks my doubt is that the markets generally rise or crash as a result of outside, non-market events, which market graphs can’t predict, whatever enthusiastic chartists suggest.

But now I have to haul up the white flag on this long-cherished position. (more…)

Many beginners, when learning to trade, are told to create or develop a trading plan. This plan gives them a course of action to follow throughout the life of the trade and generally includes entry criteria, the exit mechanism and some money management. A complete set of rules is termed a trading system. Technical analysis is the use of price, volume and chart patterns to make trading and investment decisions. (more…)

When new participants enter the speculative arena, most time is generally spent using technical analysis to look for a high probability entry technique. Technical analysis is the use of price, volume and chart patterns to make trading and investment decisions. Amateur traders believe that with a ‘sure-thing’ entry technique, profits are sure to follow. This could not be further from the truth. I’m sure you realize that the ‘Holy Grail’ does not exist and yet, how many hours do you currently spend looking for that perfect entry or indicator? (more…)

In the last article I discussed two examples of how and why volume can show the changing face of supply and demand. When the order of supply and demand is change we will get a change in market direction, sometimes a significant change in trend or otherwise some degree of retracement of the prior move. We will now continue on from that discussion and show larger periods of transition which can lead to quite substantial turning points in the major trends. These can be easy to identify, but do require some patience. If you did not read the prior article it would now be worth reviewing that before going on. (more…)

The power of correct volume analysis cannot be overlooked. Unfortunately the ability to read volume correctly is not readily discussed or freely available. Off-the-cuff remarks such as, “increased volume on advances is bullish and increased volume on declines is bearish” are bantered around but that’s as far as it goes. The correct use and application of volume can make for some quite startling insights into price action, especially when one is swing trading or leaning against support and resistance points or zones of confluence. (more…)

The most important part of investing and trading is psychology. Investing is a constant struggle where the battleground is not the market or advice given but comes from within you. You will face stress over losses, you will be in turmoil in deciding to enter or exit a position and it will place many demands on you that force you to think of who you are and what you’re trying to achieve.  But the crux comes when you learn things about yourself that you’d prefer not to acknowledge. You will automatically push them aside into your subconscious and be left with the easy part, such as laying blame or exploring a better way. This theme runs through all our lives in various formats.

Unfortunately the decision making processes throughout our lives, including ongoing management of investments, are formed within our belief systems that in turn have been seeded by our early childhood experiences and, less so, our experiences since then. I say unfortunately because talking a person out of their misconceived investment beliefs is like trying to talk someone out of their religion. It doesn’t matter that they can’t demonstrate positive results. They believe anyway, and that is that. Of course that is good for the rest of us, because if some didn’t lose there would be nothing to win. (more…)

Preface: This article has been designed and optimized for the The Chartist’s Growth Portfolio. The principles contained herein are effective for any trend following strategy of any time frame, but all references will be directly related to the The Chartist’s Growth Portfolio.

The term ‘pyramiding’ refers to the adding of positions to an existing holding as the share price moves in the direction of the current trend. For pyramiding in bullish market environments this means adding positions as the price continue to rise. It does not refer to adding to positions as price falls. Adding to losing positions is a quick way to the poor house. The simple concept of trend following is to buy strength; buy high and sell higher.

The key benefit of pyramiding is that a clean and sustainable trend will allow excessive gains to be made with minimal additional risk taken. It could be argued that one single clean and sustainable trend can double or even triple a non-pyramided account return in any given year.

Obviously there are downsides as well that we will discuss later in more depth. (more…)